Well that’s interesting. Searches for “Nate Silver” just shot through the roof.
I can see why.
Nate’s model shows Obama’s chances of winning shot to 83.7 percent as of Friday. Last I checked – a couple days ago – they were around 75 percent.
Silver says for his model to be wrong, Romney has to “hope that the polls have been biased in Mr. Obama’s favor”.
He says there could be a few reasons for such a skew:
*statistical sampling error
*opinions could change again before Election Day
*”polls might simply have been wrong all along because of statistical bias”
But that’s unlikely:
“…most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.”
Read the whole thing at Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased